Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Mon, Oct 19 · 18:00 · Al-Shabab vs Al-Faisaly
Likeliest: Al-Shabab win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Shabab62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%0
OursMarket
Al-Faisaly17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Shabab
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Al-Taawoun (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · v Al-Fayha (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · at Al-Kholood (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Al-Hilal (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Al-Hazem (A)1-1
Al-Faisaly
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 15 · v Al-Kholood (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Al-Ittihad (H)1-3
- Sep 8 · at Al-Ettifaq (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Al-Hazem (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Al-Shabab | Al-Faisaly |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 1-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.