Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Thu, Aug 13 · 18:00 · Al-Shabab vs Al-Qadsiah
Likeliest: Al-Qadsiah win · 48%
A 28% home win. The market says 21%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Shabab28%21%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
Al-Qadsiah48%58%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 42% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 26% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Shabab
LossLossLossWinLoss
- May 20 · at Al Najma (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Al Ittihad (H)3-2
- May 11 · at NEOM SC (A)1-2
- May 7 · v Al Nassr (H)2-4
- May 3 · v Al Taawoun (H)1-5
Al-Qadsiah
WinWinWinWinWin
- May 21 · at Al Ittihad (A)5-1
- May 14 · v Al Hazm (H)2-0
- May 9 · at Al-Fayha (A)2-1
- May 3 · v Al Nassr (H)3-1
- Apr 29 · at Al Riyadh (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Shabab | Al-Qadsiah |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.