Stars League (Qatar) · Fri, Oct 16 · 16:45 · Al-Shahaniya vs Al-Arabi SC
Likeliest: Al-Arabi SC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Shahaniya24%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Al-Arabi SC51%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Shahaniya
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v Lusail SC (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Al Duhail (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · at Al Shamal SC (A)2-4
- Aug 29 · v Al-Sailiya (H)3-2
- Aug 21 · at Al-Gharafa (A)1-2
Al-Arabi SC
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 9 · at Al-Sadd (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Qatar SC (H)0-0
- Sep 3 · at Al-Sailiya (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Al Duhail (A)1-1
- Aug 21 · v Al Shamal SC (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Al-Shahaniya | Al-Arabi SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.