AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Mon, Sep 14 · 16:00 · Al Shamal SC vs Al-Ittihad
Likeliest: Al-Ittihad win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al Shamal SC19%22%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Al-Ittihad57%54%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 29% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al Shamal SC
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 10 · at Al-Wakrah (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · v Al-Shahaniya (H)4-2
- Aug 27 · at Al-Gharafa (A)3-1
- Aug 21 · at Al-Arabi SC (A)2-2
- Apr 27 · at Al Sadd (A)2-3
Al-Ittihad
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 11 · at Al-Faisaly (A)3-1
- Sep 8 · v Al-Fayha (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Al-Nassr (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Al-Fateh (A)0-0
- Aug 24 · v Al-Hazem (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Al Shamal SC | Al-Ittihad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 7-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-1-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.