UAE Pro League (UAE) · Sun, Aug 23 · 16:35 · Al-Sharjah vs Al-Jazira
Likeliest: Al-Sharjah win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 31%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Sharjah46%31%+15
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Al-Jazira29%44%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 56% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 69% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 41% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Sharjah
Win
- Aug 15 · at Al-Dhafra (A)3-1
Al-Jazira
LossWin
- Aug 16 · at Hatta (A)2-0
- Aug 11 · v Al-Ittihad (H)1-4