UAE League Cup (UAE) · Fri, Oct 9 · 15:45 · Al-Sharjah vs Al-Jazira
Likeliest: Al-Jazira win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Sharjah26%27%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%25%+4
OursMarket
Al-Jazira44%48%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 37% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Sharjah
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 1 · v Al-Dhafra (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Ajman (A)2-3
- Sep 11 · at Al-Wahda FC (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v United (H)4-3
- Aug 30 · at Hatta (A)3-0
Al-Jazira
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 2 · at Khor Fakkan (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Al-Wahda FC (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Gol Gohar Sirjan (A)0-0
- Sep 10 · v Al-Nasr Dubai (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Sharjah | Al-Jazira |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-3 | 6-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 67% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.