Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Sat, Aug 15 · 16:15 · Al-Taawoun vs Al-Khaleej
Likeliest: Al-Taawoun win · 60%
A 60% home win. The market says 51%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Taawoun60%51%+9
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
Al-Khaleej19%26%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 74% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 49% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 66% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.