UAE League Cup (UAE) · Fri, Oct 9 · 13:10 · Al-Wahda FC vs Al-Dhafra
Likeliest: Al-Wahda FC win · 54%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Wahda FC54%58%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Al-Dhafra20%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 42% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 75% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Wahda FC
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 1 · at Baniyas (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Al-Jazira (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · v Al Kuwait SC (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Al-Sharjah (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Al-Dhafra (A)1-0
Al-Dhafra
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 1 · at Al-Sharjah (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Baniyas (H)1-3
- Sep 11 · at Hatta (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Al-Wahda FC (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Khor Fakkan (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Al-Wahda FC | Al-Dhafra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-4 | 1-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.