Stars League (Qatar) · Thu, Oct 22 · 14:00 · Al-Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC
Likeliest: Al-Arabi SC win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Wakrah31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Al-Arabi SC43%43%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 68% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Wakrah
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 16 · at Al-Ahli Doha (A)3-0
- Oct 8 · v Al-Gharafa (H)3-2
- Sep 10 · v Al Shamal SC (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · at Lusail SC (A)0-4
- Aug 27 · v Al-Rayyan (H)1-2
Al-Arabi SC
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 16 · at Al-Shahaniya (A)6-0
- Oct 9 · at Al-Sadd (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Qatar SC (H)0-0
- Sep 3 · at Al-Sailiya (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Al Duhail (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Wakrah | Al-Arabi SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.