King's Cup (Saudi Arabia) · Sun, Aug 16 · 18:00 · Al-Wehda vs Al-Shabab
Likeliest: Al-Shabab win · 52%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Wehda29%24%+5
OursMarket
Draw19%25%−7
OursMarket
Al-Shabab52%51%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 75% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 32% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Wehda
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 23 · v Al Ittihad (H)0-1
- May 26 · at Al Ettifaq (A)1-2
- May 21 · v Al Hilal (H)1-1
- May 15 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)1-3
- May 10 · v Al Fateh (H)1-0
Al-Shabab
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 13 · v Al-Qadsiah (H)1-3
- May 20 · at Al Najma (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Al Ittihad (H)3-2
- May 11 · at NEOM SC (A)1-2
- May 7 · v Al Nassr (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Al-Wehda | Al-Shabab |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.