Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
Likeliest: Alanyaspor win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Alanyaspor46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Erzurumspor FK24%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Alanyaspor
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Çorum FK (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Göztepe (H)2-2
- Sep 7 · at Çaykur Rizespor (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Eyüpspor (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Beşiktaş (H)1-0
Erzurumspor FK
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 20 · v Samsunspor (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at Beşiktaş (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Konyaspor (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)1-1
- Aug 21 · v Galatasaray (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.