Super Lig (Turkey) · Fri, Oct 23 · 17:00 · Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
Likeliest: Alanyaspor win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Alanyaspor46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Kocaelispor22%24%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Alanyaspor
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Fenerbahçe (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Erzurumspor FK (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Çorum FK (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Göztepe (H)2-2
- Sep 7 · at Çaykur Rizespor (A)1-0
Kocaelispor
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Göztepe (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at Beşiktaş (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Gaziantep FK (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Galatasaray (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Samsunspor (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.