La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:15 · Albacete Balompié vs CD Eldense
Likeliest: Albacete Balompié win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Albacete Balompié42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
CD Eldense30%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Albacete Balompié
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Sporting Gijón (A)1-2
- Oct 12 · at Real Valladolid (A)0-5
- Oct 3 · v Eibar (H)1-3
- Sep 25 · at Girona FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Córdoba (H)1-2
CD Eldense
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Real Valladolid (A)3-2
- Oct 10 · v Córdoba (H)2-1
- Oct 2 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-1
- Sep 27 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Eibar (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Albacete Balompié | CD Eldense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.