Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 3 · 18:00 · Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting
Likeliest: Defensor Sporting win · 37%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Albion FC31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Defensor Sporting37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 49% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Albion FC
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 28 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Peñarol (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v Progreso (H)0-1
- Aug 31 · at Racing de Montevideo (A)0-1
Defensor Sporting
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 27 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Nacional (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Central Español (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Albion FC | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-1-9 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 0-7-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.