Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Albion FC vs Montevideo City Torque
Likeliest: Montevideo City Torque win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Albion FC24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Montevideo City Torque46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Albion FC
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Cerro Largo (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Defensor Sporting (H)3-2
- Sep 28 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Peñarol (A)1-3
Montevideo City Torque
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)0-3
- Oct 9 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Oct 5 · at Nacional (A)0-2
- Sep 30 · v Peñarol (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Albion FC | Montevideo City Torque |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-8 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.