J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu
Likeliest: Sagan Tosu win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Albirex Niigata29%33%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Sagan Tosu39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 67% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Albirex Niigata
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Oita Trinita (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)2-1
Sagan Tosu
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Vissel Kobe (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Albirex Niigata | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 0-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.