National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Aldershot Town vs Carlisle United
Likeliest: Carlisle United win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aldershot Town27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
Carlisle United48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aldershot Town
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 29 · at Hornchurch (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Tamworth (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Barrow AFC (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Yeovil Town (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Solihull Moors (A)2-1
Carlisle United
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 29 · at AFC Fylde (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Woking (H)2-5
- Sep 19 · at Eastleigh (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Forest Green Rovers (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Southend United (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Aldershot Town | Carlisle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.