National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Aldershot Town vs Wealdstone
Likeliest: Aldershot Town win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aldershot Town41%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Wealdstone33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aldershot Town
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Tadley Calleva (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · at Altrincham (A)1-3
- Oct 3 · v Carlisle United (H)1-3
- Sep 29 · at Hornchurch (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Tamworth (H)5-1
Wealdstone
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Worthing FC (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · v Yeovil Town (H)0-6
- Oct 3 · at Barrow AFC (A)1-2
- Sep 29 · at Forest Green Rovers (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Gateshead (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Aldershot Town | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.