Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:00 · Aldosivi Reserve vs Banfield Reserve
Likeliest: Banfield Reserve win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aldosivi Reserve31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Banfield Reserve38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aldosivi Reserve
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 14 · at Rosario Central Reserve (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · v Tigre Reserve (H)1-0
- Sep 29 · at San Lorenzo Reserve (A)2-3
- Sep 23 · v Quilmes Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (H)0-1
Banfield Reserve
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 13 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · at Unión Santa Fe Reserve (A)0-5
- Sep 29 · v Atlético Tucumán Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 23 · at Lanús Reserve (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · at Godoy Cruz Reserve (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Aldosivi Reserve | Banfield Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.