Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 25 · 17:45 · Aldosivi vs Belgrano
Likeliest: Belgrano win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aldosivi20%25%−4
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Belgrano47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aldosivi
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (A)1-2
- Oct 9 · v Sarmiento (H)1-3
- Oct 4 · at Huracán (A)0-1
- Sep 21 · v Atlético Tucumán (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Independiente Rivadavia (A)3-4
Belgrano
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v River Plate (H)0-3
- Oct 11 · at Racing Club (A)2-0
- Oct 4 · at Talleres (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Sarmiento (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Aldosivi | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.