Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Wed, Aug 26 · 22:15 · Aldosivi vs Independiente Rivadavia
Likeliest: Independiente Rivadavia win · 51%
We make it 48% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aldosivi24%22%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Independiente Rivadavia51%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 36% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 39% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 31% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aldosivi
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 21 · v Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · v Tigre (H)0-0
- Aug 7 · at Rosario Central (A)1-2
- Aug 2 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)1-2
- Jul 29 · at Barracas Central (A)0-1
Independiente Rivadavia
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · at CA Independiente (A)0-0
- Aug 18 · v Fluminense (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Belgrano (A)0-2
- Aug 11 · at Fluminense (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Aldosivi | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-7-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.