3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Alemannia Aachen vs F.C. Hansa Rostock
Likeliest: F.C. Hansa Rostock win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Alemannia Aachen35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
F.C. Hansa Rostock40%38%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Alemannia Aachen
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 14 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)0-3
- Oct 11 · v FC Viktoria Köln (H)2-5
- Sep 19 · v Fortuna Düsseldorf (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at FC Würzburger Kickers (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v SSV Jahn Regensburg (H)2-2
F.C. Hansa Rostock
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 13 · v SV Meppen (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · at FC Würzburger Kickers (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Rot-Weiss Essen (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · v VfB Stuttgart II U21 (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · at FC Viktoria Köln (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Alemannia Aachen | F.C. Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.