3. Liga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 11 · 14:30 · Alemannia Aachen vs FC Viktoria Köln
Likeliest: Alemannia Aachen win · 41%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Alemannia Aachen41%45%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
FC Viktoria Köln32%31%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 65% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 59% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Alemannia Aachen
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Fortuna Düsseldorf (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at FC Würzburger Kickers (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v SSV Jahn Regensburg (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at FC Ingolstadt 04 (A)3-0
- Aug 29 · v SV Meppen (H)0-3
FC Viktoria Köln
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · v FC Ingolstadt 04 (H)3-0
- Sep 15 · at SV Meppen (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v F.C. Hansa Rostock (H)4-0
- Sep 5 · at Rot-Weiss Essen (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Preußen Münster (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Alemannia Aachen | FC Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-2 | 5-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.