3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 · Alemannia Aachen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Likeliest: Alemannia Aachen win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Alemannia Aachen39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Fortuna Düsseldorf35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Alemannia Aachen
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 15 · at FC Würzburger Kickers (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v SSV Jahn Regensburg (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at FC Ingolstadt 04 (A)3-0
- Aug 29 · v SV Meppen (H)0-3
- Aug 15 · at SC Fortuna Köln (A)1-1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 15 · at SSV Jahn Regensburg (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v MSV Duisburg (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at SC Fortuna Köln (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · v VfB Stuttgart II U21 (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-5
| Last 10 games | Alemannia Aachen | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.