Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Fri, Sep 25 · 19:00 · Algeria vs Zambia
Likeliest: Algeria win · 66%
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Algeria66%69%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%21%−1
OursMarket
Zambia14%10%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 90% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 31% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 87% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Algeria
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Jul 3 · at Switzerland (A)0-2
- Jun 28 · v Austria (H)3-3
- Jun 23 · at Jordan (A)2-1
- Jun 17 · at Argentina (A)0-3
- Jun 10 · at Bolivia (A)4-0
Zambia
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Mar 31 · at Argentina (A)0-5
- Mar 31 · at Zimbabwe (A)0-1
- Dec 16 · v Congo DR (H)2-0
- Nov 18 · at Angola (A)2-3
- Nov 15 · at South Africa (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Algeria | Zambia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 1-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 0-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.