Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 18 · 20:30 · Alianza Atlético de Sullana vs Universitario
Likeliest: Universitario win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Alianza Atlético de Sullana29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Universitario41%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 45% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Alianza Atlético de Sullana
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Sport Boys (A)3-1
- Sep 18 · v Comerciantes Unidos (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Club Atlético Grau (A)1-3
- Sep 4 · v Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (H)3-2
- Aug 30 · at CD Moquegua (A)4-1
Universitario
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Melgar (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · at Alianza Lima (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Comerciantes Unidos (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Alianza Atlético de Sullana | Universitario |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.