Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 18 · 01:30 · Alianza Lima vs Club Atlético Grau
Likeliest: Alianza Lima win · 69%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 73%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Alianza Lima69%73%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%18%+2
OursMarket
Club Atlético Grau10%9%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 91% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 27% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 82% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 89% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Alianza Lima
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Cusco FC (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Asociación Deportiva Tarma (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Universitario (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Deportivo Garcilaso (H)0-1
Club Atlético Grau
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 8 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Alianza Atlético de Sullana (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)2-4
- Sep 1 · v Melgar (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Alianza Lima | Club Atlético Grau |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.