Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 25 · 21:05 · Alianza Valledupar FC vs Internacional de Bogotá
Likeliest: Alianza Valledupar FC win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Alianza Valledupar FC40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Internacional de Bogotá29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Alianza Valledupar FC
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 20 · at Deportivo Pasto (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Deportivo Cali (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-4
Internacional de Bogotá
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)2-2
- Oct 4 · v Once Caldas (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)0-2
- Sep 17 · v Atlético Nacional (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Alianza Valledupar FC | Internacional de Bogotá |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 1-7-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-4 | 0-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.