Primera A (Colombia) · Fri, Oct 9 · 23:00 · Alianza Valledupar FC vs Rionegro Águilas Doradas
Likeliest: Rionegro Águilas Doradas win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Alianza Valledupar FC32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Rionegro Águilas Doradas37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 47% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Alianza Valledupar FC
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Deportivo Cali (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-4
- Sep 16 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)1-0
Rionegro Águilas Doradas
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Jaguares de Córdoba (H)2-0
- Sep 28 · at Deportivo Cali (A)0-2
- Sep 24 · at América de Cali (A)0-1
- Sep 18 · v Deportivo Pereira (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Atlético Nacional (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Alianza Valledupar FC | Rionegro Águilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-4 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.