Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven
Likeliest: Almere City FC win · 68%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almere City FC68%66%+2
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
FC Eindhoven15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almere City FC
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Sep 25 · at FC Dordrecht (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at MVV Maastricht (A)4-0
- Sep 4 · v Jong Ajax (H)0-1
FC Eindhoven
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v De Graafschap (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at NAC Breda (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v FC Emmen (H)3-1
- Sep 11 · v FC Dordrecht (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Almere City FC | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.