Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 3 · 18:00 · Almere City FC vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: Almere City FC win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almere City FC48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Volendam28%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almere City FC
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 25 · at FC Dordrecht (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at MVV Maastricht (A)4-0
- Sep 4 · v Jong Ajax (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at De Graafschap (A)4-1
FC Volendam
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 26 · v VVV-Venlo (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)1-4
- Sep 13 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FC Emmen (A)3-5
- Aug 28 · v FC Dordrecht (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | Almere City FC | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.