Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:00 · Almere City FC vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almere City FC28%30%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almere City FC
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 11 · at MVV Maastricht (A)4-0
- Sep 4 · v Jong Ajax (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at De Graafschap (A)4-1
- Aug 21 · at Vitesse (A)3-0
- Aug 14 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
Heracles Almelo
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 11 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)3-2
- Sep 4 · v De Graafschap (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Eindhoven (A)3-1
- Aug 24 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)6-1
- Aug 14 · v FC Den Bosch (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Almere City FC | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.