Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 14 · 18:00 · Almere City FC vs Jong PSV Eindhoven
Likeliest: Almere City FC win · 63%
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almere City FC63%56%+7
OursMarket
Draw19%21%−3
OursMarket
Jong PSV Eindhoven18%22%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 71% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 78% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 44% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 71% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almere City FC
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Aug 8 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · at VVV-Venlo (A)1-3
- Apr 17 · v FC Dordrecht (H)4-1
- Apr 12 · at Willem II (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-2
Jong PSV Eindhoven
Win
- Aug 10 · v FC Volendam (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Almere City FC | Jong PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 80% | — |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.