Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · Almere City FC vs Roda JC Kerkrade
Likeliest: Almere City FC win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almere City FC51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Roda JC Kerkrade25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almere City FC
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at FC Emmen (A)1-2
- Oct 9 · v FC Eindhoven (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Sep 25 · at FC Dordrecht (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
Roda JC Kerkrade
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 19 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · at VVV-Venlo (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Jong Ajax (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Almere City FC | Roda JC Kerkrade |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.