Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Apr 6 · 12:30 · Almere City vs FC Den Bosch
Likeliest: Almere City win · 51%
We make it 37% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almere City51%57%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
FC Den Bosch27%22%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 70% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 67% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 78% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 43% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 73% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almere City
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 3 · v TOP Oss (H)3-2
- Mar 20 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-0
- Mar 17 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-2
- Mar 13 · at Vitesse (A)3-1
- Mar 7 · v ADO Den Haag (H)1-0
FC Den Bosch
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Mar 21 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)3-2
- Mar 16 · v Jong PSV (H)1-0
- Mar 13 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-3
- Mar 8 · at Willem II (A)1-1
- Feb 27 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Almere City | FC Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.