Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 17 · 18:00 · Almere City vs FC Dordrecht
Likeliest: Almere City win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 48%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almere City54%48%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
FC Dordrecht23%27%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 63% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 64% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 64% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almere City
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 12 · at Willem II (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-2
- Apr 3 · v TOP Oss (H)3-2
- Mar 20 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-0
- Mar 17 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-2
FC Dordrecht
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Apr 12 · v ADO Den Haag (H)1-0
- Apr 6 · at SC Cambuur (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)0-3
- Mar 20 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)1-3
- Mar 17 · v TOP Oss (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Almere City | FC Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.