Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Tue, Mar 17 · 19:00 · Almere City vs RKC Waalwijk
Likeliest: Almere City win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almere City45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
RKC Waalwijk32%29%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 66% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 61% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almere City
LossWinLossWinWin
- Mar 13 · at Vitesse (A)3-1
- Mar 7 · v ADO Den Haag (H)1-0
- Mar 3 · at SC Cambuur (A)2-3
- Feb 27 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)3-2
- Feb 21 · at FC Eindhoven (A)2-3
RKC Waalwijk
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 13 · v Jong AZ (H)2-1
- Mar 6 · at VVV-Venlo (A)3-0
- Feb 27 · v FC Eindhoven (H)2-1
- Feb 20 · at SC Cambuur (A)1-1
- Feb 13 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Almere City | RKC Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.