La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:15 · Almería vs Burgos Club de Fútbol
Likeliest: Almería win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almería58%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Burgos Club de Fútbol16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almería
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 27 · at Mallorca (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Celta Vigo B (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Córdoba (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Cádiz (H)3-2
- Aug 29 · at CE Sabadell (A)0-1
Burgos Club de Fútbol
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 27 · v CD Eldense (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Las Palmas (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v AD Ceuta (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Aug 31 · v Real Sociedad B (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Almería | Burgos Club de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.