La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, May 16 · 16:30 · Almería vs Las Palmas
Likeliest: Almería win · 61%
A 61% home win. The market says 47%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almería61%47%+14
OursMarket
Draw21%27%−5
OursMarket
Las Palmas18%27%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 73% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 53% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 64% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almería
LossWinWinWinDraw
- May 9 · at Burgos (A)0-0
- May 4 · v Mirandés (H)4-2
- Apr 26 · at Granada (A)4-2
- Apr 19 · v Málaga (H)3-2
- Apr 12 · at Racing Santander (A)1-5
Las Palmas
LossWinWinWinLoss
- May 10 · at FC Andorra (A)1-5
- May 3 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-1
- Apr 27 · at Cádiz (A)2-1
- Apr 17 · v Leganés (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Málaga (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Almería | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.