La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Jun 20 · 19:00 · Almería vs Málaga
Likeliest: Málaga win · 41%
A 41% away win. The market says 29%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almería36%44%−8
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Málaga41%29%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 52% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 71% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 56% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 60% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almería
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Jun 14 · at Málaga (A)0-0
- Jun 9 · v CD Castellón (H)3-2
- Jun 9 · v Castellón (H)3-2
- Jun 6 · at CD Castellón (A)1-1
- Jun 6 · at Castellón (A)1-1
Málaga
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Jun 14 · v Almería (H)0-0
- Jun 10 · v Las Palmas (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · at Las Palmas (A)1-0
- May 31 · at Real Zaragoza (A)2-0
- May 24 · v Racing Santander (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Almería | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.