La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:00 · Almería vs Real Oviedo
Likeliest: Almería win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almería56%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Real Oviedo19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almería
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Real Sociedad B (A)4-2
- Oct 11 · v Leganés (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Mallorca (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Celta Vigo B (H)2-0
Real Oviedo
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at AD Ceuta (A)2-1
- Oct 12 · v Eibar (H)3-1
- Oct 2 · at CD Eldense (A)1-4
- Sep 27 · v Sporting Gijón (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at CE Sabadell (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Almería | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.