La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 31 · 16:30 · Almería vs Real Valladolid
Likeliest: Almería win · 66%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almería66%65%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Real Valladolid14%15%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 61% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 85% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 82% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almería
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- May 24 · at Sporting Gijón (A)1-3
- May 16 · v Las Palmas (H)1-2
- May 9 · at Burgos (A)0-0
- May 4 · v Mirandés (H)4-2
- Apr 26 · at Granada (A)4-2
Real Valladolid
WinLossWinLossLoss
- May 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)0-2
- May 16 · at Racing Santander (A)1-4
- May 9 · v Real Zaragoza (H)2-0
- May 3 · at Las Palmas (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Real Sociedad II (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Almería | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.