Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:30 · Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Morón
Likeliest: draw · 38%
Likely score: 1–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the draw. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almirante Brown34%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw38%35%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo Morón28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 31% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almirante Brown
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Club Atletico Colón (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v San Miguel (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at San Telmo (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v Acassuso (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Chaco For Ever (A)0-1
Deportivo Morón
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Mitre (H)0-2
- Oct 11 · at Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (A)0-2
- Oct 3 · v All Boys (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Los Andes (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Godoy Cruz (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Almirante Brown | Deportivo Morón |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.