Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:00 · Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
Likeliest: Almirante Brown win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Almirante Brown50%51%0
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+2
OursMarket
San Miguel17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 35% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Almirante Brown
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at San Telmo (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v Acassuso (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Chaco For Ever (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Club Ferro Carril Oeste (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Central Norte de Salta (A)0-0
San Miguel
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Mitre (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v All Boys (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Los Andes (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Godoy Cruz (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Almirante Brown | San Miguel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 0-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.