National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · Altrincham vs Aldershot Town
Likeliest: Altrincham win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Altrincham47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Aldershot Town27%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Altrincham
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Boreham Wood (A)1-3
- Sep 29 · at Gateshead (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Hornchurch (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at AFC Fylde (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Hartlepool United (H)2-1
Aldershot Town
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Carlisle United (H)1-3
- Sep 29 · at Hornchurch (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Tamworth (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Barrow AFC (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Yeovil Town (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Altrincham | Aldershot Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.