FA Cup (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Altrincham vs FC United of Manchester
Likeliest: Altrincham win · 70%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Altrincham70%67%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
FC United of Manchester11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Altrincham
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Aldershot Town (H)3-1
- Oct 3 · at Boreham Wood (A)1-3
- Sep 29 · at Gateshead (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Hornchurch (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at AFC Fylde (A)2-1
FC United of Manchester
WinWinLossWin
- Oct 3 · at Worksop Town FC (A)3-0
- Sep 26 · at Hyde United (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Ossett United (H)4-1
- Sep 5 · at Garforth Town AFC (A)5-1
| Last 10 games | Altrincham | FC United of Manchester |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | — |
| Both teams scored | 80% | — |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.