Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) · Fri, Oct 23 · 12:30 · Aluminium Arak vs Zob Ahan
Likeliest: Aluminium Arak win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Aluminium Arak44%——
OursMarket
Draw34%——
OursMarket
Zob Ahan22%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 39% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aluminium Arak
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Sanat Naft Abadan (A)1-2
- Oct 13 · at Fajr Sepasi FC (A)1-2
- Oct 8 · v Malavan Bandar Anzali FC (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Esteghlal FC (H)0-0
- Sep 1 · at Gol Gohar Sirjan (A)2-0
Zob Ahan
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Chador Malu Yazd (H)1-2
- Oct 13 · v Sepahan S.C. (H)1-2
- Oct 8 · at Nassaji Mazandaran FC (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Persepolis FC (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · v Paykan (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Aluminium Arak | Zob Ahan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.