Premier Division (South Africa) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:00 · AmaZulu FC vs Marumo Gallants FC
Likeliest: AmaZulu FC win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AmaZulu FC45%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%30%+1
OursMarket
Marumo Gallants FC24%23%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AmaZulu FC
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 4 · at Richards Bay FC (A)2-1
- Aug 26 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)2-5
- Aug 15 · v Siwelele FC (H)2-0
- Aug 12 · v Orlando Pirates (H)1-1
- Aug 1 · at Stellenbosch (A)1-0
Marumo Gallants FC
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 4 · v Polokwane City (H)2-2
- Aug 25 · v TS Galaxy (H)2-3
- Aug 19 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)0-2
- Aug 14 · at Stellenbosch (A)1-3
- Aug 11 · v Kruger United (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | AmaZulu FC | Marumo Gallants FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 0-7-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.