Primera A (Colombia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:05 · América de Cali vs Cúcuta Deportivo
Likeliest: América de Cali win · 79%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 57% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
América de Cali79%76%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Cúcuta Deportivo5%7%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 59% | −17 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 41% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 91% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
América de Cali
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)1-1
- Oct 12 · v Independiente Medellín (H)1-2
- Oct 5 · at Llaneros FC (A)2-1
- Sep 24 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Deportes Tolima (A)1-1
Cúcuta Deportivo
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v Deportivo Pereira (H)4-0
- Sep 26 · v Llaneros FC (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Cali (A)0-3
- Sep 14 · v Millonarios (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | América de Cali | Cúcuta Deportivo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.