Primera A (Colombia) · Mon, Oct 12 · 01:15 · América de Cali vs Independiente Medellín
Likeliest: América de Cali win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
América de Cali53%52%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Independiente Medellín20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
América de Cali
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 5 · at Llaneros FC (A)2-1
- Sep 24 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Deportes Tolima (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)0-1
- Sep 3 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)3-0
Independiente Medellín
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 6 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)0-1
- Sep 30 · v Millonarios (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)0-2
- Sep 22 · v Jaguares de Córdoba (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | América de Cali | Independiente Medellín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.